A Californian Deception

In a May 10 2015 LA Times article, the writers evaluate the fares of California's proposed high speed rail project to the projected operations and maintenance expenses.  The fares fluctuate, depending on who forecasts the potential ridership models.  It is a good article to read but, no where does the article mention the cost of payback for current bonds or future funds needed for the system's infrastructure capital costs.  With the potential maximum ridership forecasts of $2billion per year and a zero cost for annual maintenance, a zero percent bond would take 34 years to payback at the unrealistic and exaggerated infrastructure expense rate.  Add a few percentage points and add a few more years to the bonds payout costs.  The annual O and M (operations and maintenance) costs are forecast at $700million.

So, at an estimated infrastructure capital costs payback of $1.3billion annually, it would take 52 years with zero interest bonds.

In a related CA HSR story, the February 24,2015 LA Times article writes about the negative impacts which intensify urban sprawl.

There are two types of real estate development that foster urban growth: automobile centric and transit oriented design.  Transit Oriented growth stimulates concentrated economic development.  Automobile centric designs stimulate urban sprawl.

California's proposed high speed rail line does not accommodate the most important aspect to transit oriented development which necessitates transit oriented urban growth.  The proposed system lacks an ability of passenger connectivity except possibly San Francisco which is a transit oriented designed city.